## ---- SETTINGS-knitr, include=FALSE-------------------------------------------
stopifnot(require(knitr))
opts_chunk$set(
  comment=NA, 
  message = FALSE, 
  warning = FALSE, 
  eval = identical(Sys.getenv("NOT_CRAN"), "true"),
  dev = "png",
  dpi = 150,
  fig.asp = 0.618,
  fig.width = 5,
  out.width = "60%",
  fig.align = "center"
)

## ---- SETTINGS-gg, include=TRUE-----------------------------------------------
library(ggplot2)
library(bayesplot)
theme_set(bayesplot::theme_default())

## ---- count-roaches-mcmc, results="hide"--------------------------------------
library(rstanarm)
data(roaches)

# Rescale
roaches$roach1 <- roaches$roach1 / 100
# Estimate original model
glm1 <- glm(y ~ roach1 + treatment + senior, offset = log(exposure2), 
            data = roaches, family = poisson)
# Estimate Bayesian version with stan_glm
stan_glm1 <- stan_glm(y ~ roach1 + treatment + senior, offset = log(exposure2),
                      data = roaches, family = poisson, 
                      prior = normal(0, 2.5), 
                      prior_intercept = normal(0, 5),
                      seed = 12345)

## ---- count-roaches-comparison------------------------------------------------
round(rbind(glm = coef(glm1), stan_glm = coef(stan_glm1)), digits = 2)
round(rbind(glm = summary(glm1)$coefficients[, "Std. Error"], 
            stan_glm = se(stan_glm1)), digits = 3)

## ---- count-roaches-posterior_predict-----------------------------------------
yrep <- posterior_predict(stan_glm1)

## ---- count-roaches-plot-pp_check1--------------------------------------------
prop_zero <- function(y) mean(y == 0)
(prop_zero_test1 <- pp_check(stan_glm1, plotfun = "stat", stat = "prop_zero", binwidth = .005))

## ---- count-roaches-negbin, results="hide"------------------------------------
stan_glm2 <- update(stan_glm1, family = neg_binomial_2) 

## ---- count-roaches-plot-pp_check2, fig.width=7, out.width="80%"--------------
prop_zero_test2 <- pp_check(stan_glm2, plotfun = "stat", stat = "prop_zero", 
                            binwidth = 0.01)
# Show graphs for Poisson and negative binomial side by side
bayesplot_grid(prop_zero_test1 + ggtitle("Poisson"), 
               prop_zero_test2 + ggtitle("Negative Binomial"), 
               grid_args = list(ncol = 2))

## ---- count-roaches-loo-------------------------------------------------------
loo1 <- loo(stan_glm1, cores = 2)
loo2 <- loo(stan_glm2, cores = 2)
loo_compare(loo1, loo2)